How to predict if you RAC or waitlist ticket will get confirmed

In this post we will talk about Rail waitlistology!



What is rail waitlistology?
Basically, its the study of Indian railway ticket booking patterns with different angles, viewpoints and logic to be able to predict its future course of action! By the way that's not an official term.


The Moment of Suspense
As much fun it is to travel in train in India. The suspense factor is more whether your wait listed ticket will get confirmed or not. Until the last time of chart preparation, all we do is just cross their fingers and hope that the ticket gets confirmed.

We log on to check the PNR status again and again. Each time with the hope to see a "Confirm- CNF" sign on the page. Sometimes we even wait till the chart preparation. Some get lucky while others not.


How predicting will help?
Any travel or journey will be smoother and more comfortable and you will not have to make last minute arrangements. Sure we also have tricks to travel without a confirmed ticket . But that may not be suitable for everyone. May be you are traveling with your family or you just don't like the idea of traveling without a confirmed seat.

You might probably weighing your options that if there are less chances of getting a train ticket confirmed i will book a flight. If you wait to book the flight only to see that your ticket has not been confirmed you will end up purchasing flight tickets at a even higher price.

So, it will be beneficial if you can sort of predict the chances of getting the tickets confirmed.


Is it really possible to predict future?
Now, predicting wait-list tickets getting confirmed is like predicting human nature. It's like predicting how your girlfriend will be behaving with you this evening! It is not easy to tell! Really!

It depends upon several factors. So it cannot be 100% accurate. But there are indeed some formula and algorithm when used properly you can get a fair idea weather if your ticket will get confirmed or not!

Let's take a fictional situation where you have to go to Mumbai in Pashchim express. Here are some of the ideas that we would use in predicting if a train ticket will get confirmed or not:
 
  • STEP NO 1  KNOW YOUR TRAIN

    • A - The world of Quotas
      There are several quotas on every train. Almost half of the seats are reserved for some or the other quota ranging from Tatkal, Ladies, VIP, Handicapped, Foreign Tourist to several others.

      So one of the quickest way to know your chances of getting a ticket booked or not you will have to see how many tickets are available in these quotas. More tickets available in the quotas, more chances of your ticket getting confirmed.


      How to find quota details:
      You can do so by logging on official Indian Railway site http://www.indiarail.gov.in

      Here you click on train between important stations.

      On next page you can choose different quotas and then search how many seats are available in it by clicking on "Get availability" button.



      So for example

      let's say you are traveling in Pashchim express from Delhi to Mumbai in the sleeper class. Your waiting list number is around 13 . And there are 4 days left for the journey.

      After doing the quota research you find that
      • VIP Quota has 20 seats available. 
      • More seats available in ladies quota or even handicap quota. 
      • Let's say total seats available in the quotas are around 30


        Time for Prediction:
        Let's say that the total seats available is around 30 and your waiting number is 13.

        Even after some quota bookings chances are HIGH that your ticket will get confirmed after chart preparation.  Because, there more then twice number of seats available. Even if there are new bookings, there would be some cancellations too. So this makes our chances high!
        But if there were only 4-5 tickets available, chances of confirmation becomes lesser.
    • B- Look at ROUTE Source and destination
      The majority of seats are available to the source station passengers. In the above example of Paschim express, only a portion of Delhi passengers get a quota which is less then Amritsar which is the starting station.

      Explanation:
      If you plan to go from Delhi to Mumbai. It's better to buy a ticket of train that starts from Delhi rather than of a train which is on a via route.

      Why?
      Because the source station has major quotas and more seats. A station en-route usually have a very little quota. So it would be better to book a 15 waiting list ticket of a train starting from Delhi rather than getting a 5 WL ticket of a train where Delhi is only a remote location quota. (Which is very less usually)
    • Rack composition
      Another thing to look for is how many coaches of different classes are on the train.

      • If there are few coaches (seats) in your ticket's class then chances are less that your ticket will be confirmed.

      • Example: In most trains 2nd AC seats are very less. Less seats means less seats quotas, less cancellations. And finally, less chances of getting it confirmed.

      • For instance in Garib Rath, has only 3E class rakes so there is a high chance to get a wait list confirming in this train. My personal experience has been that more 100 waiting list on a Garib Rath train will have a good chance of getting a confirmed seat!
    • Train timings
      Trains that start in the night for over night journey has more traffic and less cancellations as compared to the ones starting in early morning.

      Most seats are available in the trains that start in odd-timings. If there are other options available in the day. People will book the day train first.
    • The class itself
      • Sleeper class has most cancellations. Because it always has maximum number of seats. 
      • There are few cancellations in 1AC and 2nd AC.
  • STEP 2 LOOK AT YOUR WAITING LISTIf you look closely your wait list ticket will show two numbers WL 58/ 24

    The number of left side, 58 tells you that when you booked the ticket it was 58  waiting. 24 tells your current wait list status.

    What this tells you

    It is an indicator of amount of cancellations happening since you've bought the ticket. So if there are less cancellations it would mean that chances of getting your ticket being confirmed is less too!

    Examples:
    • WL 58/50 - only 8 tickets cancelled. This would mean less people are canceling their tickets.
    • WL 50/10 - 40 tickets have been cancelled! This means that a lot of people are canceling the tickets! A very good sign!


  • STEP NO 2 LOOK AT BOOKING PATTERNS
    In the previous step we looked at our ticket's wait list number. Now let's have a look at number shown while booking the ticket.

    When you book the ticket. The availability status will show a number like WL 112/54

    This number tells you a story. 112 here means that in this section, waiting list has gone upto 112. The next number 54 tells that at this moment there are 54 people ahead of you. So if you book a ticket now, you'll be the 55th.

    How is this useful
    This will get you an idea about how many people cancel the tickets on a particular train. If the difference is not much then probably there are less cancellations.

    Less cancellations means that if you buy a high wait list ticket in this section then your chances of getting a confirmed seat are very less.

    On the other hand if there's a stark difference between maximum waiting and current waiting like WL 50/ 10 it would mean that there are many cancellations and this would be a positive sign!
  • STEP NO 3 CHECK CURRENT AFFAIRS AND OTHER COMMON RULES
    There are several other factors that influence waiting list cancellations.


    • Festival time like holi, diwali, rakhi. lesser cancellations and waiting list just keeps on increasing.
    • Public holidays - less cancellations one day before the holiday. Because many people who work outstations book an overnight ticket to spend time with the family in the hometown.
    • Evening trains - The trains with overnight journey will have maximum reservations. Because less people want to waste day time in traveling.
    • Long distance trains- have lesser cancellations. Because for short distances, people might change the plan to go in the bus or even hire a taxi. But the only comfortable way of traveling long distance journey of anything more than 10 hours would be train.

      So if your ticket is of a long distance route, it will have less cancellations.
    • Weekends -  lesser cancellations and more bookings. This is the time when outstation workers go on an overnight journey to meet their families. And people make weekend travel plans.

      If its not urgent for you its always better to book ticket in the middle of the week. Like Wednesday etc.

      Friday night and Saturday night trains are always full. So are Sunday night trains, when people want to reach to their work city to join work on Monday.
    • Yearly Timings
      During summer holiday i.e. between April to July, getting a ticket is very very difficult. This is the holiday time for children so many families plan to visit relatives in other cities or go on a vacation. Less cancellations at this time too.

Do you have any questions please post in comments or ask through contact us page.

61 comments:

Nishan said...

Nice article, Thanks for sharing

KrRahul said...

Wonderful. A great job. A big thank you!

Sandesh Prasad said...

Very very helpful article!!

DARSHAN CHAUHAN said...

Very useful information.

nitin jain said...

My waiting ticket is RLWL/22 in sleeper class dated 27/5/13
from solapur to kalyan in chennai express ...
what r d chances of ticket getting confirmed?????

Shikha Rathore said...

how many chances of confirmation of W/L 11 in tatkal in duranto express from pune to nzm??

Vijay Srini said...

Another criteria is how advance you book your ticket. If you book your ticket one month in advance, then WL 50 is OK, but if you book it 3-4 days (or one week) in advance, even WL 20 is too much.

mohit vohra said...

i have booked a ticket for rajdhani express from secundrabad to nizamudin for 9 august. the booking status is W/L 11,RLGN and current status is W/L 9. what does it mean and what are the chances of getting it confirmed.

anamika shah said...

i really appreciate this..thank you so much for such useful information..keep posting like this..:)

Romil Bhandari said...

great information shared.
Can you please tell me that are the chances of a Single ticket bought by a Lady has higher chances of getting confirmed in a wait list ticket??

ritu kukreja said...

My ticket is from.Mumbai to jammu on 19 may and it is showing rac8 what r my chances of getting confirmed

Guidento said...

@ Romil
That would make no difference. However:
@ Check for ladies quota before booking the ticket.

@ Ritu, sorry without exact details it is not possible to predict. Can you mention the train number? btw RAC does means that you can board the train. RAC 8 sounds promising and it should get confirmed prima facie!

rahul said...

i have booked ticket in delhi-mumbai rajdhani & waiting is 72 & tommorrow at 4.55 pm is the train ...is there is any chance of confirmation

Also i have booked in garib rath from delhi to mumbai waiting is 85 ...........is there is any chance of confirmation.


Plz help

Ankur Sharma said...

@Rahul....your ticket of Garib Rath has better chance of get confirmed than Rajdhani..i think you will surely get your ticket confirmed of Garib Rath...Happy Journey.

santosh kumar said...

very nice article gist is just check out before booking a ticket for the train with waiting list................

vineet kumar said...

i have a ticket of garib rath from baroda to nizamuddin my waiting is 28 and train is on 9.21 PM on 1 jun 2013 is der any chances of getting waiting clear is possible or not??

plz help me it would be grt help to me

leena said...

very useful information. kindly tell me what is RLWL.how this ticket confirms?

amit said...

thanx...next time to book tickets you will be thanked again...and again..

One Man Army said...

Hi

RAC 56,57,58, in Goa sampark kranti express on June 22nd, 2013,

After checking all the quotas, remaining quotas (10) , tatkal quotas (81), total making 91 available.

What are the chances of confirmation. Please reply.

Amit047 said...

please can any body predict for this PNR-8613745214 date of journey -28 june 13. current status 1 cnf, 2 waiting.please reply

rathod said...

Very well said. It can help a person to predict about confirm ticket.

Chintuuu said...

Dear,

Very good information. Very much appreciated.

Need some quick info. on this

Have booked a single ticket in Train no.12623 for travel date 21st June 2013. The ticket was booked approx. a month back when the W/L was 15.

Now this has come down to W/L 8.

Could someone let me know the chances of getting this confirmed before my travel date. (This Friday)

Your information will be very much helpful and appreciated.

Regards,
hp

Rajat Singh said...

pnr no:4664668799 booked on 1 june still pnr status rlwl 14

Kunal Purohit said...

nice article very helpful

Sahil Singla's Blog said...

hi

i am sahil.

my waiting is WL 10 in AG kranti rajdhani from Nizamuddin to Borivali(mumbai)for 29th June 2013 . WIll it get confirmed? Pls reply

Mahesh Chamnaru said...

hi i am mahesh my waiting is RAC|21 &RAC|22 Aurangabad passenger from Hafizpet to Manwatroad for 29th june 2013.
will it get confirmed? plz reply,i am waiting

raj said...

Is there any preference to allocate the vacancies to wait listed candidate while preparing cart?

What i mean is.. for example.. the train goes Station A to Station Z.

I am having 2 tickets -

ticket 1 for Station C to Station G waiting list 30

ticket 2 for Station A to Station y but waiting list 50

Is there any preference based on distance of travel?

Aman Chaturvedi said...

train no. 12618
DOJ 19-07-2013
Current W/L 70,71,72,73
BPL-MMR (SL)

Will it get confirmed??

PNR: 2348669171

Aman Chaturvedi said...

Train no. 11071
DOJ 20/07/2013
Current W/L : 3 4 5 6
MMR-BPL (2A)

Will it get confirmed??

PNR: 8714707703

kumar Gaurav said...

Train no. 12302 KOLKATA RJDHNI
DOJ :-24- 8-2013
Current :- RAC 11

Will it get confirmed??

Usaid Khaliq said...

Rajdhani CNB to SDAH traveling on 8th of Nov 2013.
what are the chances of getting confirmed for 3 tickets with current status of RLWL 2,3 and 4.

Please help as i need to catch flight from Calcutta the following day.

fay john said...

we are travelling from bangalore to baroda and train is garibnwaz..
WL/1 and WL/2
travelling date is 18/11/2013
plz is there any chances of ticket will get confirmed?

drashish said...

TRAIN NO 17037
DOJ 23/10/2013
RAC 1( AC 3 CLASS)
WILL IT GET CONFIRMED.

Unknown said...

You can predict whether your pnr will get confirmed or not from this website. http://pnr.me . All you need to do is enter your pnr number here http://pnr.me/predictor and you will get the prediction

jude said...

swarn shatabdi waitng 26 ec class can it cnf in a day ?

sidd said...

Hi I have booked rajdhani from delhi for 28 th Nov till Baroda 1ticket is already confirmed 1,2,3 WL for others , then I have booked kochuveli express from Baroda jn to madgaon and WL is 2,3,4,,5 .. What do you think of these tickets getting confirmed ..

sidd said...

All these tickets were booked almost 25 days ago

gourav dubey said...

Thanks Brother...you made my day...:)

sidd said...

Gaurav that was for me ? How

anish varma said...

hi , I m traveling in (Howrah- Bangalore) Duronto Express on 12-Nov . I have WL 7 in 2A class. Will it get confirmed

Ana Thakur said...

TRAIN NO: 12440
DATE OF JOURNEY: 13-12-2013
CURRENT STATUS: WL/30

IS THERE ANY CHANCES OF CONFIRMATION?

Surendra Jain said...

my pnr no 2252754670 in train no 12215 DOJ 26/12/13 and w/l is 71/44 will it confirm or not

Harsh Dattani said...

very usefull

Karuppiah Karthikeyan said...

my pnr no 4457046994 in train no 12693 doj 11/01/2014 and w/l is 129/130/131/132 will it confirm or RAC

Lakshmi Bharani said...

Travel date : 10-JAN- 2013
Train No: 17209
Status: RAC43
Any chance of conf?

Dara Sudhakar said...

MY PNR NO 8619766214 IN TRAIN NO. 12163 - DOJ 1-2-14 - 2AC - RLGN6/RLGN1, RLGN7/RLGN2, RLGN8/RLGN3 - WILL IT BE CONFIRMED - SINCE MY BOOKING THE STATUS OF AVAILABILITY STANDS UNCHANGED - IF NOT SUGGEST FOR CANCELLATION - IF CANCELLED FULL REFUND WILL I GET.

MY PNR NO.4458498101 - TRAIN NO. 11018 - DOJ 3-2-14 - PQWL5/PQWL3, PQWL6/PQWL4, PQWL7/PQWL5 - SINCE MY BOOKING THE SEAT AVAILABILITY STATUS IS UNCHANGED - PLEASE SUGGEST SHALL I WAIT TILL THE DATE OF JOURNEY OR CANCEL THE TICKETS.








juggler@mishra said...

good

Gaurav Chaudhary said...

i have booked a ticket in chennai nizamuddin rajdhani for 31 and status is rac 20 ..will it get confirmed?

Gaurav Chaudhary said...

admin please reply

Nirmal Nirmal said...

My WL Is 18 train is on friday 11.30 pm on 14 march...is any chance of RAC or confirmation

Nirmal Nirmal said...

Plz tell d train is JHELUM plz reply

Anil Tiwari said...

15645 Guahati Express Date of Journey 3/5/2014 from Jabalpur to New Jalpaigudi current status is RLWL 2 3 4 & 5 whether it will be confirmed?

INNOVATIVE INTELLECT said...

good effort you have shown to crack the mystry of irctc reservation. please do some more data analysis. we would support you in providing data. to get a pattern and probability of reservation confirmation.
thanks

bcc said...

My Ticket WL is 7(upto 12) in 2A for 17th May 2014. Wil it be confirmed?

NBY said...

RLWL171/WL78 why are there 2 wl`s?????????????

Pawan Yadav said...

15046 Gorakhpur Express Date of Journey 5/3/2014 from Vadodara to Gonda current status is RLWL 4 5 6 7 8 & 9 (3A) whether it will be confirmed?

Ria said...

I am having Pune Nagpur GaribhRath on 5 April 2014 with waiting list 59....will that get cleared by 5th...??

Naman said...

I have booked tickets for mumbai to ahmedabad in duranto express for 17th april,2014. Currently the status is W/L 5 so will it get confirmed in 6 days?

Ashish Kumar said...

I have booked tickets for Delhi to Madurai in tamilnadu Sampark Kranti express for 29th May,2014. Currently the status is W/L 1 so will it get confirmed in 40 days?

vishnu garje said...

Can six persons allowed (out of that two are sr.citizen and one is 10 yrs) in one PNR in tatkal reservation of one family , same train &same destination ?

Hinotoli Zhimomi said...

I have booked ticket fro garib rath from mumbai to delhi ,, and still waiting list 57,travelling on 23.. will it get confirm? any chance.. ? pliz help

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