How to predict if you RAC or waitlist ticket will get confirmed

In this post we will talk about Rail waitlistology!

What is rail waitlistology?
Basically, its the study of Indian railway ticket booking patterns with different angles, viewpoints and logic to be able to predict its future course of action! By the way that’s not an official term.

The Moment of Suspense
As much fun it is to travel in train in India. The suspense factor is more whether your wait listed ticket will get confirmed or not. Until the last time of chart preparation, all we do is just cross their fingers and hope that the ticket gets confirmed.

We log on to check the PNR status again and again. Each time with the hope to see a “Confirm- CNF” sign on the page. Sometimes we even wait till the chart preparation. Some get lucky while others not.

How predicting will help?
Any travel or journey will be smoother and more comfortable and you will not have to make last minute arrangements. Sure we also have tricks to travel without a confirmed ticket . But that may not be suitable for everyone. May be you are traveling with your family or you just don’t like the idea of traveling without a confirmed seat.

You might probably weighing your options that if there are less chances of getting a train ticket confirmed i will book a flight. If you wait to book the flight only to see that your ticket has not been confirmed you will end up purchasing flight tickets at a even higher price.

So, it will be beneficial if you can sort of predict the chances of getting the tickets confirmed.

Is it really possible to predict future?
Now, predicting wait-list tickets getting confirmed is like predicting human nature. It’s like predicting how your girlfriend will be behaving with you this evening! It is not easy to tell! Really!

It depends upon several factors. So it cannot be 100% accurate. But there are indeed some formula and algorithm when used properly you can get a fair idea weather if your ticket will get confirmed or not!

Let’s take a fictional situation where you have to go to Mumbai in Pashchim express. Here are some of the ideas that we would use in predicting if a train ticket will get confirmed or not:

    • STEP NO 1  KNOW YOUR TRAIN
    • A – The world of Quotas
      There are several quotas on every train. Almost half of the seats are reserved for some or the other quota ranging from Tatkal, Ladies, VIP, Handicapped, Foreign Tourist to several others.So one of the quickest way to know your chances of getting a ticket booked or not you will have to see how many tickets are available in these quotas. More tickets available in the quotas, more chances of your ticket getting confirmed.

      How to find quota details:
      You can do so by logging on official Indian Railway site http://www.indiarail.gov.in

      Here you click on train between important stations.

      On next page you can choose different quotas and then search how many seats are available in it by clicking on “Get availability” button.

      So for example
      let’s say you are traveling in Pashchim express from Delhi to Mumbai in the sleeper class. Your waiting list number is around 13 . And there are 4 days left for the journey.

      After doing the quota research you find that

      • VIP Quota has 20 seats available.
      • More seats available in ladies quota or even handicap quota.
      • Let’s say total seats available in the quotas are around 30Time for Prediction:

        Let’s say that the total seats available is around 30 and your waiting number is 13.Even after some quota bookings chances are HIGH that your ticket will get confirmed after chart preparation.  Because, there more then twice number of seats available. Even if there are new bookings, there would be some cancellations too. So this makes our chances high!
        But if there were only 4-5 tickets available, chances of confirmation becomes lesser.

    • B- Look at ROUTE Source and destination
      The majority of seats are available to the source station passengers. In the above example of Paschim express, only a portion of Delhi passengers get a quota which is less then Amritsar which is the starting station.Explanation:
      If you plan to go from Delhi to Mumbai. It’s better to buy a ticket of train that starts from Delhi rather than of a train which is on a via route.

      Why?
      Because the source station has major quotas and more seats. A station en-route usually have a very little quota. So it would be better to book a 15 waiting list ticket of a train starting from Delhi rather than getting a 5 WL ticket of a train where Delhi is only a remote location quota. (Which is very less usually)

    • Rack composition
      Another thing to look for is how many coaches of different classes are on the train.

      • If there are few coaches (seats) in your ticket’s class then chances are less that your ticket will be confirmed.

       

      • Example: In most trains 2nd AC seats are very less. Less seats means less seats quotas, less cancellations. And finally, less chances of getting it confirmed.

       

      • For instance in Garib Rath, has only 3E class rakes so there is a high chance to get a wait list confirming in this train. My personal experience has been that more 100 waiting list on a Garib Rath train will have a good chance of getting a confirmed seat!
    • Train timings
      Trains that start in the night for over night journey has more traffic and less cancellations as compared to the ones starting in early morning.Most seats are available in the trains that start in odd-timings. If there are other options available in the day. People will book the day train first.
    • The class itself

      • Sleeper class has most cancellations. Because it always has maximum number of seats.
      • There are few cancellations in 1AC and 2nd AC.
  • STEP 2 LOOK AT YOUR WAITING LISTIf you look closely your wait list ticket will show two numbers WL 58/ 24The number of left side, 58 tells you that when you booked the ticket it was 58  waiting. 24 tells your current wait list status.

    What this tells you
    It is an indicator of amount of cancellations happening since you’ve bought the ticket. So if there are less cancellations it would mean that chances of getting your ticket being confirmed is less too!

    Examples:

    • WL 58/50 – only 8 tickets cancelled. This would mean less people are canceling their tickets.
    • WL 50/10 – 40 tickets have been cancelled! This means that a lot of people are canceling the tickets! A very good sign!

     

  • STEP NO 2 LOOK AT BOOKING PATTERNS
    In the previous step we looked at our ticket’s wait list number. Now let’s have a look at number shown while booking the ticket.When you book the ticket. The availability status will show a number like WL 112/54

    This number tells you a story. 112 here means that in this section, waiting list has gone upto 112. The next number 54 tells that at this moment there are 54 people ahead of you. So if you book a ticket now, you’ll be the 55th.

    How is this useful
    This will get you an idea about how many people cancel the tickets on a particular train. If the difference is not much then probably there are less cancellations.

    Less cancellations means that if you buy a high wait list ticket in this section then your chances of getting a confirmed seat are very less.

    On the other hand if there’s a stark difference between maximum waiting and current waiting like WL 50/ 10 it would mean that there are many cancellations and this would be a positive sign!

  • STEP NO 3 CHECK CURRENT AFFAIRS AND OTHER COMMON RULES
    There are several other factors that influence waiting list cancellations. 

    • Festival time like holi, diwali, rakhi. lesser cancellations and waiting list just keeps on increasing.
    • Public holidays – less cancellations one day before the holiday. Because many people who work outstations book an overnight ticket to spend time with the family in the hometown.
    • Evening trains – The trains with overnight journey will have maximum reservations. Because less people want to waste day time in traveling.
    • Long distance trains– have lesser cancellations. Because for short distances, people might change the plan to go in the bus or even hire a taxi. But the only comfortable way of traveling long distance journey of anything more than 10 hours would be train.So if your ticket is of a long distance route, it will have less cancellations.
    • Weekends –  lesser cancellations and more bookings. This is the time when outstation workers go on an overnight journey to meet their families. And people make weekend travel plans.If its not urgent for you its always better to book ticket in the middle of the week. Like Wednesday etc.

      Friday night and Saturday night trains are always full. So are Sunday night trains, when people want to reach to their work city to join work on Monday.

    • Yearly Timings
      During summer holiday i.e. between April to July, getting a ticket is very very difficult. This is the holiday time for children so many families plan to visit relatives in other cities or go on a vacation. Less cancellations at this time too.

Do you have any questions please post in comments or ask through contact us page.

178 thoughts on “How to predict if you RAC or waitlist ticket will get confirmed

  1. Another criteria is how advance you book your ticket. If you book your ticket one month in advance, then WL 50 is OK, but if you book it 3-4 days (or one week) in advance, even WL 20 is too much.

  2. i have booked a ticket for rajdhani express from secundrabad to nizamudin for 9 august. the booking status is W/L 11,RLGN and current status is W/L 9. what does it mean and what are the chances of getting it confirmed.

  3. @ Romil
    That would make no difference. However:
    @ Check for ladies quota before booking the ticket.

    @ Ritu, sorry without exact details it is not possible to predict. Can you mention the train number? btw RAC does means that you can board the train. RAC 8 sounds promising and it should get confirmed prima facie!

  4. i have booked ticket in delhi-mumbai rajdhani & waiting is 72 & tommorrow at 4.55 pm is the train …is there is any chance of confirmation

    Also i have booked in garib rath from delhi to mumbai waiting is 85 ………..is there is any chance of confirmation.

    Plz help

  5. i have a ticket of garib rath from baroda to nizamuddin my waiting is 28 and train is on 9.21 PM on 1 jun 2013 is der any chances of getting waiting clear is possible or not??

    plz help me it would be grt help to me

  6. Hi

    RAC 56,57,58, in Goa sampark kranti express on June 22nd, 2013,

    After checking all the quotas, remaining quotas (10) , tatkal quotas (81), total making 91 available.

    What are the chances of confirmation. Please reply.

  7. Dear,

    Very good information. Very much appreciated.

    Need some quick info. on this

    Have booked a single ticket in Train no.12623 for travel date 21st June 2013. The ticket was booked approx. a month back when the W/L was 15.

    Now this has come down to W/L 8.

    Could someone let me know the chances of getting this confirmed before my travel date. (This Friday)

    Your information will be very much helpful and appreciated.

    Regards,
    hp

  8. Is there any preference to allocate the vacancies to wait listed candidate while preparing cart?

    What i mean is.. for example.. the train goes Station A to Station Z.

    I am having 2 tickets –

    ticket 1 for Station C to Station G waiting list 30

    ticket 2 for Station A to Station y but waiting list 50

    Is there any preference based on distance of travel?

  9. Rajdhani CNB to SDAH traveling on 8th of Nov 2013.
    what are the chances of getting confirmed for 3 tickets with current status of RLWL 2,3 and 4.

    Please help as i need to catch flight from Calcutta the following day.

  10. we are travelling from bangalore to baroda and train is garibnwaz..
    WL/1 and WL/2
    travelling date is 18/11/2013
    plz is there any chances of ticket will get confirmed?

  11. Hi I have booked rajdhani from delhi for 28 th Nov till Baroda 1ticket is already confirmed 1,2,3 WL for others , then I have booked kochuveli express from Baroda jn to madgaon and WL is 2,3,4,,5 .. What do you think of these tickets getting confirmed ..

  12. MY PNR NO 8619766214 IN TRAIN NO. 12163 – DOJ 1-2-14 – 2AC – RLGN6/RLGN1, RLGN7/RLGN2, RLGN8/RLGN3 – WILL IT BE CONFIRMED – SINCE MY BOOKING THE STATUS OF AVAILABILITY STANDS UNCHANGED – IF NOT SUGGEST FOR CANCELLATION – IF CANCELLED FULL REFUND WILL I GET.

    MY PNR NO.4458498101 – TRAIN NO. 11018 – DOJ 3-2-14 – PQWL5/PQWL3, PQWL6/PQWL4, PQWL7/PQWL5 – SINCE MY BOOKING THE SEAT AVAILABILITY STATUS IS UNCHANGED – PLEASE SUGGEST SHALL I WAIT TILL THE DATE OF JOURNEY OR CANCEL THE TICKETS.

  13. good effort you have shown to crack the mystry of irctc reservation. please do some more data analysis. we would support you in providing data. to get a pattern and probability of reservation confirmation.
    thanks

  14. I have booked tickets for mumbai to ahmedabad in duranto express for 17th april,2014. Currently the status is W/L 5 so will it get confirmed in 6 days?

  15. I HAVE BOOKED TICKET FROM "BANGALORE TO NEW DELHI",, AND STILL WAITING LIST IS W/L 61 AN W/L 62 WITH MY FRIEND // TRAVELLING ON 27TH APRIL 2014…. I AM HANDICAPPED PERSON ALSO…WILL IT GET CONFIRM..?ANY IDEA.?? PLEASE HELP..

  16. I HAVE BOOKED TICKET FROM "COIMBATORE TO HOWRHA",, AND STILL WAITING LIST IS W/L 2. 3 A/C ON 27TH APRIL 2014. WILL IT GET CONFIRM..?ANY IDEA.?? PLEASE HELP.. April 26, 2014 at 4:13 AM

  17. Hey man i booked the ticket from delhi to gaya in sealdah rajdhani in 2AC,including me total 3 passengers are going,we have the waitlist number 1,2 and 3.there are 12 days for remaining.
    can our get confirmed.

  18. Departure: 17 May, 2014. Darjeeling mail.
    Today current status is RAC 14 – RAC 19.
    Will it be confirmed? If so, can I get the berths together?

  19. Departure: 17 May, 2014. Darjeeling mail.
    Today current status is RAC 14 – RAC 19.
    Will it be confirmed? If so, can I get the berths together?

  20. My Date of Jouney is 26 May 2014 and Wait List is 2 , 3 and 4 , For Meerut to Mumbai, I booked my ticket on 31 March 2014. Want to know the chances of ticket confirmation.

  21. Hi,
    Urgently need ur help. I booked my ticket on Apr. 30th for a journey on 28th May from NZM to Kota in Intercity Express 12416 for two passengers. At the time of Booking the waiting was 10 & 11 and today it is 5 & 6. I just want to know what are the possibilities of getting a confirmed ticket. I tried thru Tatkaal also but it was all full till i was able to open the site.
    Please help.

  22. There is a thing named Tatkal Waiting List CKWL
    Now Cnf Tatkal Tickets can't be cancelled, then what is the logic of Tatkal Waiting List, when it can't move. Even more if additional coach is added priority given to GNWL. Then what for CKWL exists

  23. My ticket is in train no. 12955 jaipur BCT express
    Journey Date = 30/06/2014
    Current status= W/L 1
    what are the chances of it getting confirmed
    to be noted initial status was W/L 1, PQWL booking date was 27/05/2014

  24. What is the strategy of RLWL? and Why the hell irctc allows to book till 150WL in some trains?
    I believe irctc ticketing strategy is not good and it has many loop holes,whom we need to complaint about these? and now a days irctc website became crap and tried calling customer care and always its in responsive 🙁

  25. Hello please do reply
    My train is tomorrow at 10am and my current status is wl22 of 36 hours journey from ahmedabad to Coimbatore.will it confirmed or at least can it reach upto RAC?

  26. Hi, I have a waiting list 50 ticket for a journey from chennai to ernakulam in chennai express for 1st october. The waiting list while booking was 100. What are the chances of it getting confirmed?

  27. how to find which station has how many number of seats reserved for a particular train. This could be immense help to book long distance break journey tickets in cases where direct train are not available.

  28. Hi,i have a waiting list 45 for a journey from secundrabad to narasapur in hyderabad -narasapur express for 21 jan .The waiting list while i was booking was 62.what are chances of it getting confirmed…?plz reply

  29. I've booked train from Mumbai to delhi for 6th feb 2015 for my family including kids.
    the status as of today i.e. 28 jan is

    WL/30 RAC/25
    WL/31 RAC/26
    WL/32 RAC/27

    what are chances of confirmation in the next 8 days; that too in same cabin/ coach since I'm travelling with family

  30. My ticket is from Bangalore Jn to Allahabad JN on 18 April in 3-AC, train no. 12295 ( Sanghmitra Express) and it is showing WL/13 what r my chances of getting confirmed ??
    Please help ..

  31. I've booked train from Porbander jn to Gorakhpur jn for 16th may 2015 for me & My sis.
    the status as of today i.e. 17 march 2015 is

    Passenger 1 W/L 274,GNWL W/L 250
    Passenger 2 W/L 275,GNWL W/L 251
    Passenger 3 W/L 276,GNWL W/L 252

    what are chances of confirmation in the next 60 days;??

    will I have to keep Backup For It???

  32. Basing on ConfirmTkt.com 2 tickets have very high confimation chances,3 tickets probable,1 ticket in Nochance.Basing on this I can say atleast 2 tickets will get confirmed for sure.You can check your pnr in ConfirmTkt.com

  33. I booked a ticket for Mumbai to kolkata in 2AC for journey on 23rd May 2015 in .. There is a waiting of 5 seats(GNWL17/WL5)..can anyone tell me is there any Chances of getting confirmed??

  34. I booked a ticket for 3 person from ernakulam to kolkata in 3AC for journey on 26th May 2015………and it is not confirmed….the waiting list are PASSENGER 1 [WL/9 WL/5]…….. PASSENGER 2 [WL/10 WL/6]……. PASSENGER 3 [WL/11 WL/7]………. can anyone tell me that it can be get CONFRIMED till 26th may 2015……?????

  35. http://www.confirmtkt.com

    Hassle free predicting! Here's a website which has a comprehensive algorithm that analyzes past ticketing trends and helps you predict the confirmation chances of your PNR with a very high accuracy. Not only can you predict your booked tickets but also predict the chances of getting a confirmed ticket before even booking. And the best feature is the get alternatives that helps you to get a confirmed ticket even if the current status is on a waiting list.

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  36. I booked a ticket for 2 person from mughal sarai to secunderabad in 3AC for journey on 19th june 2015 in train no 12792………and it is not confirmed….the waiting list are PASSENGER 1 [WL-35/WL-26]…….. PASSENGER 2 [WL-36 WL-27]……….. can anyone tell me that it can be get CONFRIMED till 19th june 2015……?????

  37. my ticket is currently waiting list no 38 to 40 travelling date 15 june in 12171 ltt haridwar in handicapped quota. so how much chances of ticket gets confirmed?

  38. Today i had booked 3 tickets in General quota 2nd Ac with w/l 23/11 and still we got all 3 seats confirmed in just 8 and half hours. The journey from Vadodara to Karjat. Thankyou to all cancelers ?

  39. Thanx for the article …. Can anyone tell me one thing ,,, i hd booked tickets with Darjeeling Mail.. Sealdah to NJP … Waiting list is 260 … Journey date is 19th october… What r the chances of it getting confirmed !??

  40. i checked on trainman and on confirmtkt website my ticket is in 1A in konkanya express train no-10111 , my waitlist is 11 and 12 so if anyone have any idea about chances please let me know about confirmation. thanks.

  41. i have booked the ticket 4 month before for 4 tickets in Mumbai Rajdhani from Mumbai to Delhi and still the waiting is in 2AC 13/14/15/16 .. please advise will it get confirm or not..

  42. i have booked the ticket 4 month before for 4 tickets in Mumbai Rajdhani from Mumbai to Delhi and still the waiting is in 2AC 13/14/15/16 .. please advise will it get confirm or not..

  43. Hi
    I have booked 2 tickets from Hyderabad to goa that is from kachiguda to vaskodagama and the current waiting list is 67 and there are just two more days remaining and the date is on 1st January ,train name is ypr express
    Please give me your valuable response
    Thanks
    Reddy
    Please

  44. tOO HELPFUL TO ME .. I TRAVEL LOT OF TIME IN TRAIN BUT EXACTLY I DID NOT KNOW THAT RAC56/24 WHAT IS EXACTLY WANT TO SAY BUT NOW GOT THAT .. THANKS MAN . VERY NICE ARTICLE

  45. I have a 2AC ticket with current status as RAC 2 in Pachim express from BDTS to CDG. When I booked the ticket in Feb , status was RAC 3. My date of journey is 3 may 2016.

    Could you please tell me what are my chances of getting this ticket confirmed.

  46. Sir My PNR 2120351023 my ticket before November 1 in New Delhi to Darbhanga I was 27/21 on Walting Walting is now 27/5, is there any chance of getting confirmed please tell me

  47. i booked a ticket with GNWL56/WL37 status to journey from SDAH to APDJ in kanchankanya exp.(train no:13149) on 10th april 2017. Today my PNR status is GNWL56/WL25. Is there an chance to confirm seat????

  48. Many trains have RAC seats. It depends upon the train which you booked ticket. for example Rajdhani, Satabdi and Duronto trains don't have RAC seats. So your ticket will be cancelled if you don't get confirmed. But trains which have RAC seats both of you can travel even one ticket remains WL after charting. So, it is important to know about your trains quota.

  49. Wonderful. Really a great job. A big thank you! Now my pacific ask to know from you in, I had booked Ticket from Surat to New Delhi in Paschim Express waiting list 25 & it's still 25 for 16 october.
    How much chances to get cleared am with family.

  50. my pnr no. is 2720507839
    Train no. is 12413 (AII JAT EXPRESS)
    Boarding Date: 10-12-2017
    Boarding Point: Jaipur
    my booking status is RAC/31/GN and current status is RAC/22

    how much chance to get it confirmed before date

  51. Nice article. I wanted to know if the ticket is RAC 10 in 3AC class of train no. 12687, what are the chamces of this ticket getting confirmed?

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